Emissions, Regulation, and the Surge in E-Commerce Shipments by Air

Keywords: aviation, logistics, ecommerce, emissions,
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

We evaluate the contribution of e-commerce air shipments to greenhouse gas emissions and consider the regulatory tools available to hasten the industry's decarbonization. Our focus is North America, but the analyses are relevant to other regions where e-commerce is growing rapidly. We assess the growth of the airlines most associated with e-commerce in North America including Amazon Air, FedEx Express, UPS Airlines, and Cargojet with an emphasis on their fleet expansion. We use data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics to assess the networks of air cargo carriers. We then apply a carbon calculator to estimate CO2 emissions from air cargo operations in the US between 2011 and 2021. Finally, we examine the application of environmental policy to emissions from the sector. In particular, we consider how the large expansion of airborne e-commerce is likely to be affected by the implementation of the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and by ICAO's adoption of new aircraft emissions standards for 2028.