Examining El Niño Early Warning Indicators using Peru's Sea Surface Temperature Index (ICEN)

Keywords: El Niño, Early Warning System, ENSO, Disaster Risk Reduction, Peru, Latin America, Climate-health
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the anomalous warming of the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which could very well have wide ramifications on weather patterns around the globe and health risks. In this study, we focused on refining the early detection of such events through the reexamination of the Peruvian coastal El Niño (ICEN) index and evaluate whether we can identify an earlier warning indicator. Specifically, we analyzed the ICEN multidecadal dataset of seasonal sea surface temperatures from 1950 to 2024 to identify anomaly values lower and greater than 0.4 (Celsius) to determine when an El Niño event begins and ends. We applied the method by Glantz and Ramirez (2020), which identified an earlier warning indicator for Oceanic Niño Index. This research may allow governments and humanitarian organizations to act sooner with greater confidence to avoid or minimize El Niño-related health and societal risks, such as increased incidents of vector-borne diseases, food insecurity, and weather extremes that affect vulnerable populations along the coasts of South America. More broadly, this research can support climate risk management efforts to enhance the societal readiness for El Niño events.