Assessing the Potential Feasibility of Planned Retreat against Emerging Wildfires in the USA: A Case Study of Marshall Wildfire, Colorado

Keywords: Wildfires, managed retreat, relocation, hazards
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Driven by global climate change, wildfires in the western United States have been increasing in frequency and severity over the past two decades. With the increasing population in fire-prone zones in the wildfire-urban interface (WUI), more than 4.5 million properties in the USA are vulnerable to high to extreme wildfire risk. An emerging stream of climate research views planned relocation as an essential strategy for adapting to climate-induced hazards, often termed a "managed retreat." Although planned retreats have successfully been executed in flood-prone areas- their application for wildfires is still limited. With the increasing cost of wildfire risk reduction in the changing climate, implementing managed retreats for wildfires may become inevitable for many WUI communities. Before deciding whether to pursue a planned managed retreat, it is crucial to investigate the at-risk community's perceptions and willingness to participate in such a program. Recently there have been emerging conversations regarding the applicability of managed retreats in wildfires, yet no research has comprehensively addressed this topic. This study fills this gap by examining the experiences and perceptions of the community affected by the Marshall wildfire (2021) in Boulder County. Taking the Marshall wildfire as a case study, I interviewed community members, public officials, and wildfire experts and combined their perspectives regarding considering the execution of a managed retreat program in Boulder County, Colorado. With the insights gained from the interviews and field observation, the study assesses the potential feasibility of planned retreat programs in the broader context of wildfires in the USA.