Land change and future climate in the Cerrado biome

Keywords: Cerrado, land change modeling, temperature increase, environmental policy
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Brazil is one of the largest suppliers of commodities in the world, partly due to the agricultural expansion in the Brazilian savannas (also known as Cerrado) that began in the 1970s, made pos-sible by the green revolution. However, as areas with better soil and climate for agriculture be-come scarce, farmers have been advancing to the ecotone between the savanna and a semi-arid steppe, where precipitation is less reliable for rainfed agriculture. The expected increase in tem-perature will lead to extended drought periods, with negative consequences to surface, and groundwater resources. This study examines the dangers of making land change decisions based on current climatology in places where temperature and reduced water availability are projected to become an issue for rainfed agriculture in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. We modeled the future farmland expansion and how that matches with future climate change predictions (2016-2046). According to our estimates, at least 122 thousand km2 of cropland and 433 thousand km2 of pastures will be created in places with projected higher annual temperatures ranging from 26-30 C. This is equivalent to ~60% of the current agricultural areas, and a novel agro-climatology will emerge for the Cerrado biome. To avoid future losses in agricultural production, water management strategies will be needed as well as the active participation of the private sector.