Human mobility or COVID-19 incidence: Which comes first? Unearthing the association of time series trends of human mobility and COVID-19 incidence
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Keywords: Human mobility, COVID-19, Spatial time series analysis, Granger causality
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract
Authors:
Hoeyun Kwon, University of Iowa
Caglar Koylu, University of Iowa
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Abstract
To ensure the effectiveness of health interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, positive correlations between human mobility and COVID-19 incidence have been found in previous studies. However, it is still to be answered which comes first, mobility or disease. A few studies have revealed their bi-directional relationships, but spatial and temporal variations in those relationships are not yet investigated. In this paper, we use a spatial time series analysis to elucidate where, when, and how human mobility and COVID-19 incidence are associated with each other. We conduct the Granger causality analysis to compare the time series of human mobility flows and COVID-19 cases and examine if their statistically significant relationships have spatial and temporal variations. Our findings reveal that COVID-19 incidence and human mobility do not always have the same direction in their relationship, and such direction varies across space and time.
Human mobility or COVID-19 incidence: Which comes first? Unearthing the association of time series trends of human mobility and COVID-19 incidence
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Paper Abstract
