Projecting the impact of loneliness and social isolation on the health outcomes of England's future elderly population
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Keywords: Social isolation, loneliness, dynamic microsimulation, ageing, risk behaviours
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract
Authors:
Luke Archer, The University of Leeds
Nik Lomax, The University of Leeds
Bryan Tysinger, USC Schaeffer Center
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Abstract
Levels of social isolation and loneliness in England increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, and remain at levels higher than before the advent of national lockdowns. This is especially true for the ageing population - whilst research has shown that young people are more likely to report feeling lonely, the largest number of people still experiencing social isolation are older people. These two distinct risk factors have been linked to an increased likelihood of adverse health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease, dementia, the development of functional limitations, and mortality. For this reason, loneliness and social isolation are often compared with other risk behaviours such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and lack of physical activity. Whilst the specific isolation brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has receded in many countries, the unexpected and unprecedented nature of the response demonstrates the need to better understand the effects of isolation and loneliness on a growing elderly population.
Using the English Future Elderly Model (EFEM), a dynamic microsimulation model that relies on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we aim to project the long term health effects of increased loneliness and social isolation in the ageing English population. Under a range of scenarios, we will report on a range of health outcomes including changes in life years and disability- & disease-free life years, and analyse how these outcomes differ by socio-demographic group.
Projecting the impact of loneliness and social isolation on the health outcomes of England's future elderly population
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Paper Abstract