UTILIZING SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO ENCAPSULATE THE EFFECTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE IN CARTERET COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA

Keywords: Coastal Forest, Saltwater Intrusion, Sea-Level Rise, Ghost Forests, Land cover change
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Abstract: The correlation between land cover loss and sea-level rise is of the utmost concern in Carteret County, NC. This study quantifies and illustrates the loss of various land classifications due to sea-level rise. As sea levels rise and overwhelm Carteret County, there will be extensive loss of agricultural lands, coastal forests, developed lands, and wetlands. Coastal forests will succumb to saltwater intrusion and transition to ghost forests. Ghost forests are the dead and dying remains of a once viable coastal forest that has succumbed to saltwater intrusion. Spatial analysis utilizing Esri software was used to encapsulate data representing the extent of sea-level rise and its explanatory factors. National Landcover Data was obtained from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium from the recent year of 2019. Sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios procured from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Office for Coastal Management, depicting 2ft, 4ft, 6ft, 8ft, and 10ft sea-level rise were utilized to aid in the identification of areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Spatial analytics was run to show the percentage loss of various land cover classifications due to sea-level rise. Preliminary results show there are substantial shifts in land cover implicated by sea level rise. For instance, coastal forests will decrease by 12% and agricultural lands will decrease by 5% at a 4ft sea-level rise. Projections show a decrease in land classifications and potential changes in demographics within the county, signifying their transition to open water.