Hidden patterns of development in Africa with underlying sustainability and landscape correlations

Keywords: Africa, Cluster analysis, Development, Factor analysis, Index, Landscape configuration, Landscape ecology, Landscape indicators, Population growth, Sustainability assessment, Sustainability indicators
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Africa is arguably the most important continent for understanding how to reach global sustainability. Societies have embraced indicators and indices as tools to create benchmark initiatives, measuring current conditions, and help set future development targets. Responding, a paralyzing amount of these metrics are available for decision-makers, practitioners, and researchers to choose from causing difficulties during practice. Further, the number of dimensions required for capturing all aspects of sustainability remains open. Building from previous studies, this research first condensed and described a set of 44 multi-metric sustainability indices across 55 African nations. A factor analysis identified 11 significant dimensions (axes) that conveyed over 79% of the total variation of the 44 indices. Second, a Ward’s cluster analysis was used to create country bundles of similarity; a mega-index of sustainable development (MISD) was created using the 11 axes to rank those country bundles. Third, bivariate regressions between common global change indicators, urban and forest class configurations metrics were computed against the 11 hidden dimensions and MISD. The three strongest hidden axes expressed: (F1) human well-being synergies; (F2) governance and liberty; (F3) economic stability. F1 explained over one-third of the total variance, with best conditions in northern countries bound by the Mediterranean Sea. Cluster Analysis revealed a six-bundle solution, while Namibia, Ghana, Gabon, and Kenya ranked highest by MISD. Findings reiterate an underrepresentation of ecological conditions across existing sustainability indices. Where biogeochemical indicators are scarce, results support that landscape ecology metrics can be used as relevant proxies for assessing environmental integrity across scales.