Understanding Drivers of Dairy Production, Effects of Drought and Farmer Adaptations in Rondônia, Brazil

Keywords: agriculture, Amazon rainforest, drought
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Farmers in the Amazon are faced with poor soil fertility and limited soil water availability during the dry season. Forests in the Amazon maintain the nutrient cycle, and deforestation for agriculture interrupts this cycle by removing organic matter and losing nutrients to runoff. Between 2000 and 2013, approximately 32.4 million hectares were deforested for human uses in the Brazilian Legal Amazon and, of that, approximately 20.2 million hectares were cleared for pastures, the dominant land use in the Amazon. Due to both inherently low fertility and to the interruption in the nutrient cycle, pastures in the Amazon may have poor soil fertility. To understand the drivers of pasture health, the effects of drought and farmer adaptations to variable pasture quality and a changing climate, I propose a mixed-methods analysis that uses data on cattle milk productivity collected by government extension agencies and other researchers to quantitatively model the drivers of pasture health. I will then compare the results of these models with qualitative interviews conducted in August 2024 with farmers on their perceptions of pasture health and climate. Preliminary analysis shows that when comparing milk productivity with environmental variables such as percent base saturation, percent clay, or geology, visual patterns between the predicted (milk productivity) and predictor (environmental) variables emerge. Additionally, interviews with farmers resulted in several themes across the state that tell us that the top difficulties (water availability, soil quality, market prices, etc.) for farmers vary by region.