From Farmland to City Blocks: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Three Major Cities Along the Northern Rio Grande Corridor

Keywords: CropScape, Remote Sensing, Land Cover, New Mexico
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

The Rio Grande corridor has experienced significant land use transformations driven by rapid urbanization, posing critical challenges to agricultural sustainability. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion and agricultural land conversion in three metropolitan regions along the Rio Grande: El Paso, Las Cruces (Doña Ana County), and Albuquerque (Bernalillo County) from 2000 to 2020. Using Landsat imagery, a Random Forest classifier was implemented for land cover classification due to its robust performance in handling complex landscape features and ability to assess variable importance in the classification process. The classifier was trained using carefully selected spectral bands and indices, achieving an overall accuracy exceeding 93%. USDA CropScape data and census statistics were integrated to validate the results and analyze socio-demographic drivers. Statistical correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between urban growth patterns and agricultural land decline, with correlation coefficients ranging across the three study areas. The findings indicate varying rates of agricultural land conversion, with El Paso showing the highest rate of urban expansion into agricultural lands, followed by Bernalillo County. Doña Ana County, despite experiencing urban growth, maintained relatively stable agricultural lands, particularly in areas of high-value pecan orchards. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of urban-agricultural interfaces in arid regions and provides quantitative evidence to inform land use policies and urban planning strategies along the Rio Grande corridor.