How does conflict increase climate-induced crop failure in the eastern Mediterranean?

Keywords: Crop loss, crop stress, climate risk, climate vulnerability, climate adaptation, Syria, Turkey
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

The strain on agriculture for food production is exacerbated by frequent and intense weather conditions. This strain can be further amplified by protracted conflict and depletion of coping capacities in some region. Remote sensing offers a valuable tool for monitoring cropland loss and understanding the interplay between conflict and climate. In this study, we mapped crop loss in 2020 in northeast Syria and adjacent provinces in southern Turkey and utilized the differential effect of weather on irrigated and rained land to examine how conflict increased climate-induced crop loss. We first separated irrigated and rainfed land by using soil-water indicators derived from Landsat. Second, we excluded areas that experienced direct damage using records of conflict events. To map crop loss, we compared the 2020 Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) to a baseline of the previous year’s EVI and climate variables of the period (2017-2019). Finally, we generated a crop vulnerability map including indicators of water stress (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration), temperature variations, heat, and frost days. We found that conflict in Syria tripled the likelihood of rain-fed lands experiencing loss associated with agro-climatic conditions compared to rain-fed land under the same agro-climatic condition in non-conflict area in Turkey. However, 25 % of the total loss in Syria and 5 % of the loss in Turkey showed weak associations with the included weather factors, suggesting unobserved variables. Our findings highlight how conflict increased climate risk in Syria and pave the way for multi-year analysis to better understand the indirect impact of conflict on cropland.