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Is there a relationship between conflict events and rainfall in Ethiopia? The importance of geo-precision and unit of analysis
Topics:
Keywords: Ethiopia, ACLED, conflict, rainfall Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Authors:
Elia A Machado, Lehman College and the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY)
Kalle Hirvonen, International Food Policy Research Institute
Andrew Simons, Department of Economics, Fordham University
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Abstract
Concerns about climate change and its effects on conflict have led to an increasing number of publications investigating this nexus. However, and despite the theoretical grounds that the impacts of climate change can exacerbate conflict through resource competition and other mechanisms, demonstrating this relationship empirically has been challenging and resulted in mixed results.
We investigate the relationship between conflict and rainfall in Ethiopia using the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) data with the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and examine how the unit of analysis impacts the results along with the variability of geo-precision of conflict events.
Our results indicate that changes in the unit of analysis affect the relationship between conflict and rainfall which strengthens as the unit of analysis decreases. The variation of geo-coding uncertainty across time and space possess an additional challenge to assessing this relationship.
Is there a relationship between conflict events and rainfall in Ethiopia? The importance of geo-precision and unit of analysis