Coupled modeling of diverse adaptation behaviors and land-atmosphere interactions to identify transformative adaptation pathways in agri-food systems

Keywords: Integrated modeling, multi-scale, agrifood systems, Southeast
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Transformations of current agri-food systems (AFS) are necessary and inevitable. While the number and diversity of existing community-based/engaged initiatives aimed at scaling-up local AFS innovations is inspiring, they tend to be narrowly focused and/or operate in isolation from one another. Increasingly extreme seasonal hazards (i.e., droughts, floods) pose challenges that cannot be overcome by any single intervention in AFS ‘leverage points’ – or places in complex systems where small interventions can lead to large changes. Rather, ‘chains’ of interacting leverage points that synergistically intervene in socioeconomic, cultural, and biophysical systems are needed to catalyze scalable, transformative adaptation. Understanding how such transformative pathways might emerge requires advances in systems modeling tools, and specifically the integration of behaviorally rich models of adaptation decision-making into large-scale Earth system models. Research dynamically coupling agent-based models (ABMs) of diverse adaptation behaviors with large-scale crop and atmospheric circulation models is nascent, yet essential for identifying synergistic leverage point interventions across socioeconomic, cultural, and biophysical domains. This study presents two advances. First, an ABM with behaviorally diverse farmer decision-making was used to investigate factors explaining adaptation deficits in response to droughts. Second, the ABM was coupled with a proof-of-concept crop and land surface-atmosphere modeling framework to investigate the effects of farming practices on local and regional atmospheric conditions. Preliminary results showed that adaptation deficits among farmers were driven by behavioral diversity rather than initial capital differences, and land-atmosphere feedbacks modified by irrigation adoption can moderate some of the impacts of adaptation deficits among the most disadvantaged.