The Changing Landscape of US Politics: Democrat vs. Republican Shifts in Congressional Districts, 2016-2022

Abstract

This article analyzes how the US congressional districts for the House of Representatives voted in the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections. We focus on the districts that changed their political preferences from 2020 to 2022, after voting consistently for either Democrats or Republicans from 2016 to 2020. Our analyses involved these steps. First, we computed the total votes and the percentage of votes for each party in each district and each year. Second, we calculated the margin between the two parties by subtracting the Democratic percentage from the Republican percentage in each district and each year. Third, we determined the shift between the two parties by comparing the margin in two consecutive elections: 2016 - 2018, 2018 - 2020, and 2020 – 2022. An increased margin means the district is becoming more Democratic (blue), while a decreased margin means the district is becoming more Republican (red). Fourth, we identified the districts that had a consistent shift direction from 2016 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2020, but a different shift direction from 2020 to 2022. Lastly, we explored the possible reasons for the change of the most dramatic districts.