An Approach to Evaluate Historical Adaptation Pathways

Abstract

Communities along the United States’ coastline face many risks that are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. When selecting strategies to adapt to these risks, the past is often dismissed. However, in reality, the decision space available to local officials can be limited due to the presence of path dependency. In order to assess historical adaptation pathways (HAP) and the potential for path dependency, we have created a HAP approach. This approach combines both deductive and inductive elements and draws upon more established qualitative methods (e.g., process tracing) to highlight drivers and barriers of adaptation. This approach is illustrated through a comparative analysis of two adjacent islands off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina. Early findings show two very different pathways of adaptation, due not only to unique challenges and opportunities, but also due to institutional structures.