Leptospirosis Risk Maps in Oahu, Hawaii, USA

Abstract

Leptospirosis is designated as a neglected tropical disease by the World Health Organization, and it is caused by pathogenic species of Leptospira bacteria (Costa et al., 2015). The disease can be asymptomatic or cause minor illness or it can manifest more acutely with complications including organ hemorrhaging, kidney failure, meningitis, and death (Karpagam & Ganesh, 2020). Leptospirosis is estimated to infect 1 million people and kill nearly 59,000 people annually (Costa et al., 2015). In the United States, Hawaii is second only to Puerto Rico in the number of cases, with an average of 30 cases per year being reported between 1990 and 2020; nevertheless, leptospirosis cases in Hawaii are severely underreported. As the world continues to heat up due to climate change, the conditions for these bacteria to thrive will expand to new geographical areas for longer times of the year (Karpagam & Ganesh, 2020). Using ArcGIS Pro, we will run a suitability analysis of Oahu using climatic, environmental, and demographic data to create a risk map for the presence of pathogenic Leptospira bacteria and the risk of contracting it for Oahu, the most populous island in the Hawaiian archipelago, using a methodology that created similar risk maps in Puerto Rico and Uganda (Muñoz-Zanzi, et al.). These maps can be used by public health officials to shape policy surrounding leptospirosis prevention on Oahu and the methodology can be applied to areas around the world.