Impact assessment of climate change on water supply to Hsinchu Science Park

Abstract

The Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) in Taiwan plays a vital role in the chain of semiconductor production, but water scarcity has been challenging the semiconductor manufacturing. The Baoshan Reservoir (BS) and the Baoshan Second Reservoir (BSR) are two major sources of water supply to HSP. However, the impacts of climate change on the water supply have not been analyzed. In this study, a hydrological model (i.e. SWAT) and an operation model of the BR and the BSR were coupled to assess the climate change impacts on the inflow, outflow, and water storage of the reservoirs. The simulations were based on the weather data for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 of AR5 for periods of 2021-2100 derived from 34 GCMs. It is found that more global warming would result in more apparent rainfall seasonality that is wetter in wet season and dryer in dry season. The seasonality in river flow is even more amplified, disrupting the water storage of the two reservoirs. The water scarcity duration, i.e. the water storage cannot fully satisfy the demand, for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 in 2081-2100 would be 58, 61, and 53 days, respectively, longer than 48 days for the baseline period. While the water scarcity duration for RCP2.6 would be 45 days. Our assessment results indicate that the water supply to the HSP in the future should be seriously concerned to stabilize the manufacturing processes and hence the global semiconductor supply.