Biogeographical suitability modeling of Chinese chestnut under climate change scenario in the Midwest and North East Central Regions of USA

Keywords: growing degree days, nut crop, agroforestry
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 38

Abstract

Chinese chestnut is a valuable tree species for nut and timber production in the US Midwest and Northeast regions. The appropriate soil and environmental conditions make them biogeographically suitable in the region. However, climate change alters the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, including growing degree days and winter chilling requirements, which affect nut productivity. This study has threefold objectives. First, we will determine the biogeographical suitability of chestnut based on soil and environmental characteristics in the eight states, i.e., Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, located in the Midwest and East North Central regions of the USA. Second, we will identify how weather variables affect nut productivity at different crop phenology stages based on field observation, expert consultation, and the literature. Third, we will study the spatial variability of selected weather parameters, mainly growing degree days and chilling portion, based on historical and future climate projections. Our preliminary findings suggest the potential expansion of suitable areas in the country's northern parts by mid-century. We also find spatial variability in growing degree days and chilling portions, which could affect nut productivity. These insights can aid in the strategic promotion and establishment of nut trees to ensure that these multi-decadal investments are resilient to current and future climatic variability and change.