Climate and Natural Hazard Analysis for Transportation Networks North of Lake Baikal

Keywords: hazards, Indigenous, infrastructure, permafrost
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 38

Abstract

Throughout the area surrounding Lake Baikal, Indigenous Evenk populations and local communities utilize an expansive informal road network to access traditional subsistence hunting grounds, cultural sites, and other communities. Informal roads include extraction industry easements and trails not officially recognized or maintained by the government. Lack of maintenance increases these roads' vulnerability to a variety of natural hazards such as subsidence, mudslides, and washouts. These challenges are amplified in areas of mountainous topography, seismic activity, and underlying permafrost subject to climatic variability such as north of Lake Baikal. This study presents a hazard assessment for informal roads surrounding the city of Severobaikalsk in the Baikal Mountains. While much of the permafrost in this region exists at higher elevations, thawing conditions can decrease slope stability and increase the frequency of mass wasting events. These and other natural hazards threaten the long-term use of these unmaintained roads, particularly by locals practicing subsistence. Over 350 km of informal roads within the area were digitized in Google Earth. Climate trends in the area were analyzed using station data and MERRA reanalysis products. To identify the sections of the road network most at risk, a hazard composite index was created to account for topography, hydrology, and permafrost. The resulting hazard maps will be shared with local communities and validated by first hand accounts of hazards expressed in interviews. By incorporating physical geography with local Indigenous knowledge, this hazard assessment provides a unique and more complete understanding of informal infrastructure in a hazard prone environment.