Suitability Modeling of Southern Pennsylvania’s Agricultural Lands Using AHP and GIS

Keywords: Suitability Modeling, Agriculture Suitability, Climate Change, Natural Resources, Environmental Science, Pennsylvania,
Session Type: Virtual Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 38

Abstract

Future climate changes are projected to disrupt regional precipitation patterns, increase average temperatures, and impact soil chemistry. Agriculture is extremely susceptible to those changes, which could reduce yields and affect crop quality. The IPCC’s sixth assessment suggests that at a 2°C global average temperature increase, North American agriculture could be negatively impacted by mid-century with grave implications for food security. The USDA’s 2017 agricultural census reports that Lancaster, Chester, Lebanon, Berks, and York counties account for 43% of Pennsylvania’s agricultural sales and $3.4 billion in economic activity. The main crops in this region are corn, soybeans, and wheat, and this study aims to develop a model that will help predict the most suitable regions to produce these crops as climate changes. It is proposed that current crop selection, based on historical precedent, may not be optimally aligned with growing conditions. This GIS analysis focuses on Pennsylvania’s five most productive agricultural counties and synthesize the variables of maximum and minimum daily temperatures, average daily rainfall, slope, aspect, land cover, and soil characteristics. Datasets are sourced from the USGS, PASDA, NRSC SSURGO and the CHELSA model. Data for each variable is reclassified into five categories from unsuitable to most suitable based on a review of optimal growing conditions for each crop. Each variable is ranked based on importance to determine their respective weights in the final suitability index. This model can be applied to help maximize Pennsylvania’s agricultural productivity under current climate conditions and investigate the potential impacts of global climate change.