Mapping suitability of specialty crops in California to improve preparedness for climate change

Keywords: agricultural geography, ecological niche model, climate change, land use
Session Type: Virtual Poster
Day: Wednesday
Session Start / End Time: 4/7/2021 03:05 PM (Pacific Time (US & Canada)) - 4/7/2021 04:20 PM (Pacific Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 51

Abstract

California is the state with the highest agricultural revenue in the US, and specialty crops are the second main product. Specialty crops, which include fruits and nuts, are responsible for $21 billion in revenue in 2018/2019. These crops benefit from California’s climate conditions, soils, diversity of relief, and water availability. However, the spatial agricultural suitability for each crop and the influence of anthropogenic factors on the spatial pattern are not well defined, hindering this industry's preparedness to climate change. The goal of this research is to estimate the ecological niche for the main specialty crops in California. To accomplish this goal, we developed ecological niche models for each crop using the Maxent algorithm. The data for the presence of crop is from the Cropland Data Layer, USDA NASS. The environmental factors are bioclimatic variables and slope, while anthropogenic factors are distance to roads and irrigation canals. Preliminary results indicate that specialty crops have expanded in the last decade, increasing the spatial variability. For the 2008 to 2018 period, strawberries, citrus, and lettuces have experienced higher temperatures, while walnuts and almonds have not experienced significant changes. The analysis of the ecological niche for agricultural suitability can contribute to identifying the optimal location for each crop, thus contributing to improved sustainability and preparedness for climate change.