Changing distributions of US corn production under IPCC climate scenarios: impacts and uncertainties

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, corn belt, species distribution models
Session Type: Virtual Paper
Day: Wednesday
Session Start / End Time: 4/7/2021 08:00 AM (Pacific Time (US & Canada)) - 4/7/2021 09:15 AM (Pacific Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 46

Abstract

Climate impacts on agriculture are increasingly evaluated using a species distribution modeling approach. As methods proliferate, communicating uncertainty is important, in both model conception and implementation. This paper examines approaches to communicating variations in output using a case study of projected corn production in the US Corn/Soy belt, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, using downscaled climate data in a species distribution model. We give special attention to visualizing ranges in model results. The general pattern of change in distribution shows dramatic shifts in range and extent of highly suitable areas. We explore here strategies for communicating the changes that will affect communities and livelihoods across the region. As a coda, we also address the question of expanding production chains relying on continuing corn and soy feedstock, as investments increase in technologies relying on strong future production of these crops for products beyond feed and ethanol.