The Impact of Business Closure on Theft: A Case Study of Grocery Stores

Abstract:

The spatial patterns of crime have long been explored within the framework of routine activity and environmental criminology theories, which suggest that the physical environment, including Points of Interest (POI), can either inhibit or facilitate criminal activities. While previous research has established a relationship between the presence of business facilities and crime, few studies have differentiated the effect based on the operational status of these establishments. This study extends this line of inquiry by investigating how grocery stores in different operational states—closed, surviving, and of unknown status—affect theft incidence. Using negative binomial regression models, the findings reveal that grocery stores that have closed within the past decade significantly contribute to an increase in theft, likely due to the creation of criminogenic environments marked by diminished guardianship and increased social disorganization. In contrast, stores that are still in operation or whose operational status is unknown do not exhibit significant effects on theft. These results underscore the importance of accounting for business closures in crime prevention strategies and urban policy, particularly in areas experiencing economic decline.

Keywords: Crime patterns, business closure, theft, grocery stores, environmental criminology, routine activity theory

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