Habitat Suitability Modeling for the Near-Threatened Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) Across the Contiguous United States Using ArcGIS and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt).

Keywords: Habitat suitability modeling, MaxEnt, Cerulean Warbler, Species distribution modeling, ArcGIS, Machine Leaning
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a Near Threatened migratory bird species and the fastest declining wood warblers in North America whose population decline has raised concerns regarding its conservation. Understanding the potential distribution and habitat suitability of this species is crucial for informing conservation efforts and guiding habitat management strategies. This study aims to model the potential distribution and habitat suitability of the Cerulean Warbler across the contiguous United States. From April to October 2022, we deployed 19 acoustic sensors in some locations in Indiana with a duty cycle of 1 min on and 9 min off and analyzed the recordings using BirdNET, a deep learning tool designed to identify bird species from their vocalizations. Sensors where the Cerulean Warbler was detected served as occurrence point, which were supplemented with broader occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) for the same year. The environmental variables used in this study include 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim dataset, topography variables (slope, elevation, aspect), a land cover map, canopy height, as well as distances to rivers and roads. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and ArcGIS Pro, we identified key environmental variables influencing the species' distribution and predict suitable habitats. The outcome of this study includes a habitat suitability map highlighting critical areas for the conservation of Cerulean Warbler and insights into the environmental factors that most significantly affect its distribution. These results will provide valuable guidance for conservation planning, habitat management, and future research on this Near Threatened species.