Climate change and the Urban Heat Island: future impacts on Milwaukee's disadvantaged communities

Keywords: Climate Change, SSP, UHI, Wisconsin, urban, GIS, green infrastructure
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Climate change’s effects are well known on a broad scale, but at a small, urban tract level they are less so. The phenomenon Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI) explains that urban environs are likely to suffer more intense heat waves than rural. Factors such as vegetation and land use can contribute to UHI, and contribute to higher risk for acute heat waves. This study focuses on analyzing the fine-scale impacts of urban heat waves under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) future climate scenarios, as well as assessing the potential disproportionate impact on disadvantaged communities in the Milwaukee, WI area.

Using downscaled climate data, hazards can be mapped for the state of Wisconsin in scenarios to 2100. Taking factors such as the number of days above a certain temperature, the probability of damaging heat waves can be predicted, then compared to the historic record of heat waves to determine the change from current conditions. Mitigating factors such as green infrastructure can be key in a warming future, however many disadvantaged communities lack this infrastructure, and may be at greater risk of adverse effects from UHI. Using spatial analysis of census tracts and socioeconomic factors in coordination with layers of infrastructure data, this study will be able to effectively map areas of concern in two climatic future scenarios across the Milwaukee area. Anticipated results will show impoverished urban areas suffering from UHI acutely, and to be at a greater disadvantage in the future and in need for more resources for effective adaptation.