Urban Structure in Flux: Polycentric Urban Development and Its Determinants in Poland and the United States in the 21st Century

Keywords: Urban Structure, Polycentric Urban Development, Poland, United States
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of urban spatial structure, specifically focusing on the degree of polycentric development, and identifies key determinants driving these changes in city-regions of Poland and the United States. Using data from 2000/2006, 2010, 2016, and 2021, we analyze changes in morphological and functional polycentricity across 55 urban regions in Poland and 129 metropolitan areas in the United States. Additionally, we apply panel regression to draw robust conclusions regarding the determinants of polycentric urban development.
Our findings reveal distinct evolutionary patterns in urban regions within Poland and the United States throughout the 21st century. Although our results indicate an overall increase in polycentric development in Poland during this period, this trend was not universally observed across all regions. In contrast, the primary trend in U.S. urban regions points to a decrease in the number of subcenters within metropolitan statistical areas, reflecting a shift towards a more monocentric structure in both morphological and functional terms.
In both countries, regional context and the initial configuration of urban structure play significant roles in shaping trajectories of urban transformation. Finally, our panel regression analysis underscores that population size and the functional specialization of urban regions are key predictors of polycentricity.