Projecting Risk in Southern California Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Areas

Keywords: Socio-ecological Systems, Forest Landscape Modeling, Urban Growth Modeling, Disturbance Ecology
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Expansion into vegetated bodies and into wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas, where human development meets undeveloped wildland, has increased wildfire risk and economic costs, with WUI areas accounting for 75% of structural losses due to wildfire in California. Rapid WUI growth across the contiguous United States saw a 41% increase in new housing from 1990 to 2010 and is projected to continue, intensifying the need for sustainable fire management. This research proposes a comprehensive analysis of California’s WUI wildfire risk through a novel approach by coupling LANDIS-II, a forest landscape model, and SLEUTH, an urban growth model. By integrating these models, this project aims to simulate the interactive effects of urban expansion, vegetation dynamics, and climate on future wildfire regimes in WUI zones, identifying cost-effective management strategies to reduce risk by the century’s end.
Three core objectives drive this work: (1) developing a coupled model that provides dynamic feedback between forest landscapes and urban growth, (2) assessing model sensitivity and performance, and (3) evaluating the economic impact of diverse fire management strategies. This work's results will provide policymakers insights, fostering improved land-use planning and forest management. The project’s contributions will enhance our understanding of wildfire dynamics in socio-ecological systems, creating a scalable model framework applicable to other regions.