Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics Influenced by Dangote Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria.

Keywords: Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Changes, Spatiotemporal Analysis, Hurst Exponent, Ibeju-Lekki, Epe, Eti-Osa and Lagos State, Nigeria.
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

The rapid industrial growth in Lagos State, Nigeria has largely impacted land use and land cover (LULC) change, especially with the establishment of the Dangote Refinery playing a crucial role in this transformation process. This study assesses the spatiotemporal pattern of LULC change across Lagos State, with an emphasis, on Ibeju-Lekki, Epe, and Eti-Osa Local Government Areas (LGAs) which have been directly influenced by the developments associated with the refinery. The study examined changes in LULC over 16 years (from 2008 to 2024) using imagery data from Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellites.
By using the Hurst exponent to quantify the persistence or randomness of future LULC trends, this research evaluated the long-term impact of these changes and made predictions about developments. The final results show that establishing the refinery has intensified the urban footprint, with a marked increase in built-up areas and a decrease in vegetative cover within the targeted LGAs. This development can impact local ecosystems, land management, and climate resilience. This research provides insights into the consistency, randomness, and likelihood of stability of LULC changes in Lagos State especially in the focused LGAs, thus supporting decision-making for sustainable urban planning framework in Lagos State, Nigeria in response to industrial pressures.