Modeling Rural Service Access and Isolation in Disasters: A Case Study of Earthquake-Triggered Landslides in Nepal

Keywords: Landslide, Disaster, Isolation, Access, Essential Services, Earthquake
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

When disasters occur, mountainous and rural communities can become isolated or experience significantly reduced access to essential services like healthcare and information services.

We developed a method to quantify changes in service access by pairing a cost-distance travel model with hazard scenarios.
We quantified access as travel time to the nearest service using the fastest travel mode and path. The method captures off-road foot travel, crucial for rural areas like Nepal. We developed this method through a case study of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, where landslides damaged roadways and created immediate access challenges. By comparing pre- and post-disaster travel times, we estimated regional changes in service access, highlighting areas at high risk of isolation.

Our results show that, under normal conditions, remote communities have poor access to centralized services like regional hospitals and municipality offices, but better access to local facilities such as rural health posts. With limited pre-existing access to centralized locations, these communities face a significant absolute increase in travel time, though the relative increase is small. These findings highlight how remote communities’ access to local services is less affected, as residents often travel by foot and use alternative paths to bypass landslide areas. However, hospitals and government offices crucial for life-saving and recovery activities remain inaccessible.

This method generates comprehensive landslide risk models to help affected governments prioritize road improvements and landslide protection projects, assist disaster management organizations in strategically stockpiling emergency supplies in areas prone to isolation, and support emergency response teams in directing rescue operations.