Presentation of the Paris Area Flood Evacuation Agent-based model

Keywords: flood, risk, evacuation, abm
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

With the rising level of the Seine River during Hurricane Kirk, the city of Alfortville (located in the Paris area, France) faced a major concern. If the water level exceeds 6.5 meters, 97% of the city will be flooded within two days, and decision-makers will need to manage the evacuation of 45,000 inhabitants. The large-scale evacuation of the population in the event of a major flood in the Paris area remains a significant challenge for emergency managers. This presentation aims to introduce the PAFE ABM (Paris-Area Flood Evacuation Agent-Based Model), an agent-based model developed on the NetLogo environment, that simulates evacuation behavior under different flood scenarios across four territories within the Paris area. Additionally, we leveraged data from the 2022 ANR RER survey on risk perception in the Paris area (n=5,000) to calculate the likelihood of individuals evacuating, based on key flood-related conditions that were highlighted in the survey.