Exploring Land Use and Transportation Trends in Japan: A 2050 Carbon Neutrality Perspective

Keywords: Scenairo simulation; Land use/cover change; Sustainable development; Transpotation
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Industrialization driven by fossil fuels and rapid urbanization has led to a significant increase in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, intensifying the need for reduction efforts worldwide. As a developed nation, Japan has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Land use/cover changes influence transport demand by altering commuting patterns and traffic flows, while new infrastructure shapes land development in surrounding areas. Their mutual interaction creates continuous feedback loops, which can be analyzed through integrated models for sustainable urban planning. This study aims to explore the spatial relationship between land use/cover change and transportation demand in Japan from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate future land use scenarios for 2050. The scenario development is based on three key considerations: (1) Japan’s population is projected to decrease to around 100 million by 2050, leading to changes in land use demand; (2) small towns are expected to face continued farmland abandonment and rising numbers of vacant houses, while Tokyo is likely to experience urban densification. However, Osaka and Nagoya are expected to undergo polycentric development, with potential population decline by 2050; and (3) environmental conservation efforts and development restrictions will be prioritized in areas with high disaster risk.
By integrating these factors, this study attempts to provide a comprehensive forecast of Japan’s future land use, offering insights for policymakers and urban planners working towards sustainable development and carbon neutrality in the face of shifting demographic and environmental conditions.