Connecting the telecoupled cascading effects of a regional hazard to global cropland expansion and biodiversity impacts

Keywords: agricultural expansion, telecoupling, human-environment, metacoupling, biodiversity, trade
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

In the increasingly interconnected modern world, the amount of land devoted to a given commodity crop depends on many factors, including international demand. The production of commodity crops, such as soybean, can have a myriad of environmental impacts which vary depending on the production processes. The international soybean trade connects the two largest soybean exporters, Brazil and the US, however, environmental hazards, such as droughts, can alter trade relationships by impacting production across one region. Moreover, disaster impact assessment methods often examine only the direct impacts to the area of the disaster. In this study, we assessed the telecoupled effects of a drought in the US, specifically on cropland expansion and the associated biodiversity impact. We determined the amount of global cropland expansion that occurred in response to a major drought period across the US per 5 arc-minute grid cell using the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment-Gridded version (SIMPLE-G). Then, we used the spatial location and intensity of land conversion as inputs to several biodiversity impact assessments to determine the effects of a regional drought on global biodiversity. These findings represent an initial step toward understanding how a given shock in one location can impact biodiversity in distant regions.