Investigating the Impact of Heat Exposure on Cardiovascular Disease Incidence in the United States

Keywords: Heat Exposure, Cardiovascular Disease, Spatial Analysis, Medical Geography, Public Health.
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

This proposed study aims to investigate the relationship between heat exposure and cardiovascular disease incidence, specifically heart attacks, across counties in the United States. Utilizing data from the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network, the research will employ a combination of spatial and statistical analyses to explore this relationship. Methods will include Pearson correlation to assess the strength of associations, multiple linear regression to identify key predictors, spatial lag models to examine spatial dependencies, Local Moran’s I to detect spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis to identify high-risk clusters, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to account for geographic variations. The central hypothesis is that while heat exposure may contribute to heart attack rates, a combination of strong environmental and demographic factors—such as forest cover, air quality, smoking rates, obesity, and chronic hypertension—will play a more significant role. The study anticipates uncovering complex interactions among these predictors, with spatial analyses revealing the importance of local factors in shaping cardiovascular health outcomes. This research will contribute to a deeper understanding of cardiovascular disease risk by examining the interplay between heat exposure and other critical variables. Potential limitations, including data sensitivity, spatial scale, and the challenges of establishing causality, will be considered. Nonetheless, the findings will provide valuable insights for public health strategies and in the field of medical geography aimed at mitigating heat-related health risks.