Spatiotemporal clustering of dengue amidst steady human population decline in Puerto Rico, 2010-2023

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Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Dengue is a disease caused by infection with the dengue virus (DENV) primarily transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. It poses a significant public health threat, with approximately 390 million infections and 20,000 deaths globally each year. In Puerto Rico, recurrent dengue outbreaks have led to substantial morbidity and mortality, exacerbating public health challenges. In 2023, Puerto Rico declared a public health emergency due to escalating dengue cases, underscoring the urgent need for targeted research to inform timely and effective intervention strategies. Concurrently, Puerto Rico has been experiencing a steady human population decline over the past decade. This study examines the spatiotemporal clustering of dengue cases in Puerto Rico from 2010 to 2023 to determine whether dengue outbreaks have shifted spatially or temporally in response to population changes. Annual DENV case data, provided by the Puerto Rico Department of Health, were analyzed to identify municipality-level trends across all 78 municipalities. The retrospective space-time permutation in SaTScan was employed to identify statistically significant clusters of DENV cases across space and time. This analysis aims to pinpoint high-risk areas and temporal patterns of dengue occurrence amidst demographic shifts, providing insights into the relationship between population density, spatial distribution, and dengue transmission dynamics. Findings are expected to reveal where and when dengue clusters emerged, highlighting any recent trends related to Puerto Rico’s declining population. This study underscores the value of spatiotemporal methods in enhancing dengue surveillance and guiding localized, data-driven interventions in response to Puerto Rico's evolving demographic landscape.