Climate Change and Social Vulnerability: A Case Study of the Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala Region

Keywords: Mexico City, water, climate change
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

This project analyzes climate change vulnerability in the Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala hydrological region in Central Mexico at the municipal level. This region encompasses 210 municipalities, covering approximately 31,305 square kilometers, with a total population of 23+ million people. It supplies water to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, which has been experiencing water scarcity for decades.

The project employs geospatial analysis to identify areas projected to experience the largest decreases in precipitation or increases in temperature under different climate change scenarios (SS2 and SS5 for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100). Climate projection data from two sources, CORDEX and CHELSEA, will be mapped and compared. Additionally, the project will analyze the spatial distribution of social vulnerability indices produced by Mexican government agencies (CONAGUA and CONEVAL) to identify spatial clusters of the most socially vulnerable municipalities.

In the final step of the analysis, climate projections and social vulnerability data will be combined to pinpoint areas where high social vulnerability and the most significant negative impacts of climate change overlap. By integrating climate projections with social vulnerability indices, this study highlights the areas where the most vulnerable populations are likely to face the greatest challenges.