Anticipating bioeconomy transitions: An integrative systems approach for exploring uncertain futures

Keywords:  bioeconomy, future, agriculture, food, scenarios, qualitative, quantitative, integrative approaches, system dynamics, foresight
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

The transition to a bioeconomy is widely promoted as a strategic response to biodiversity loss, climate change, and resource sustainability within policy frameworks. Yet the expansion of biorefinery infrastructures is entangled with multifaceted socio-environmental processes, power imbalances, and unpredictable societal trajectories. While existing simulation models offer sophisticated portrayals of biophysical and economic processes, they often struggle to capture the multi-layered interactions between socio-economic drivers, institutional change, and contested visions of sustainability. This gap raises critical questions about how to integrate quantitative modeling with qualitative, stakeholder-driven perspectives to more effectively anticipate and navigate bioeconomy transformation pathways.

This paper proposes an integrative approach blending System Dynamics with actor-based analysis and participatory scenario exploration. Quantitative modeling concentrates on stock-flow interactions and feedback loops, highlighting critical leverage points such as technological advancements and resource limits. Qualitative assessments incorporate institutional friction, competing visions of the bioeconomy and power asymmetries, revealing how governance patterns or policy choices may maintain dominant pathways or spark new directions.

Focusing on the tension between the dominant biorefinery-based model and the agroecological vision of the bioeconomy in Europe, we show how this combined method helps identify socio-political lock-ins and potential tipping points. By merging the predictive strengths of SD with exploratory scenario-building, this approach moves beyond linear transition models to accommodate multiple imaginaries of sustainable futures. It offers fresh insights into how bioeconomic transitions can be anticipated, contested, and governed in conditions of systemic uncertainty and shifting power relations.