Envisioning an ecological bioeconomy: A critical review of future scenarios

Keywords: foresight, future, bioeconomy, agriculture, food, scenarios, qualitative, quantitative, integrative approaches
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

The bioeconomy, defined as the use of biological resources like biomass to produce food, energy, and materials, is often presented as a pathway to sustainability and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. It encompasses diverse models, from technology-driven innovation to ecologically grounded approaches, and holds the potential for far-reaching economic, environmental, and social transformations. Scenarios are pivotal tools for envisioning and guiding bioeconomy futures, yet their ambitions and methodologies vary widely. This paper systematically reviews bioeconomy scenarios published since 2015, addressing four key questions: What types of transformations do these scenarios prioritize, and how do they conceptualize change across economic, environmental, and social dimensions? To what extent do they effectively integrate qualitative and quantitative methods, and how well do they tackle the complexities of systemic transitions? Do they explicitly engage with transformative dimensions like justice, power dynamics, and equity, or risk perpetuating existing inequalities and socio-political hierarchies? Finally, what are their critical methodological limitations, particularly in capturing the interplay of local and regional scales? The analysis reveals a spectrum of approaches, from incremental technological fixes to ambitious socio-ecological shifts, but highlights significant gaps. Many scenarios emphasize technology and market solutions while neglecting structural inequalities and socio-political contestations. Drawing lessons from these limitations, the paper proposes methodological criteria for developing integrative and transformative scenarios that address the intertwined challenges of sustainability and justice.