Moving together towards “better” – integrating predictive modeling and stakeholder imaginaries to catalyze sustainable agricultural transition

Keywords: Agriculture, futures, climate change
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

Climate change will alter the yields and resultant cultivation geographies of many major crops. Evaluating how climate interacts with human activity to shape cultivation possibilities for farmers is vital to understanding the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. This talk will describe a new multi-institution project integrating predictive modeling, expert insights, and farmer feedback to distill possible future cultivation geographies in the three U.S. states. Our team is working iteratively with experts to quantify the impacts of biophysical, technological, and political-economic shifts on cultivation geographies in each region over the next 30-40 years. Within this suite of co-produced possible futures, we will articulate futures deemed desirable by diverse stakeholders and identify leverage points to move agricultural systems in each region towards these futures.