Spatiotemporal analysis of determinants of heart disease and cancer mortality rates in Wisconsin

Keywords: cancer, heart disease, determinants of health, public health
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Purpose: Over the last twenty years, the leading cause of death in many US states shifted from heart disease to cancer. We sought to understand the spatiotemporal factors associated with these changes in mortality trends within a single state.

Methods: We utilized data from public databases such as the Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health mortality module, the University of Wisconsin’s County Health Rankings, and the US census. Very strong outliers for HD and cancer mortality were identified in urban counties, of which we removed five to investigate the rest of the state in a more balanced manner. We generated separate linear regression models for heart disease and cancer mortality for 2010, 2015, and 2020. Explanatory variables were percent of uninsured individuals, smokers, obese, over the age of 65, African American, American Indian/Alaska Native, the number of preventable hospital stays, and population density.

Results: Across the six models, population density was a highly significant factor (β=0.41-0.60, p<0.0001). The percentage of American Indian/Alaska Native individuals was significantly associated with both heart disease and cancer mortality (p=0.02 & p=0.01; β=-2.11 & β=-2.37). Percent of the county who were smokers and percent uninsured was significantly associated with cancer mortality (p=0.04) in 2015 and heart disease mortality in 2020, respectively (p=0.05).

Conclusions: Many common factors for heart disease such as smoking and obesity were not as frequently significant as expected when investigating at county levels. Following studies should investigate the specific regional cultural and health care accessibility variables driving trends in mortality within Wisconsin.