The travel behavior impacts of expanding rail transit network: a causal analysis across different development stages

Keywords: Travel behaviour; Rail transit development; accessibility; difference-in-dfference; Shenzhen
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

The emerging economies such as China have experienced unprecedented urbanisation accompanied by rapid development of transport infrastructures especially rail transit. On top of providing convenient options to meet daily travel demand, rail transit is also deemed a sustainable and environmentally friendly solution to urban transportation. Though there are many studies investigating rail transit as a transport mode for daily travel, there is not much understanding about the changing role of rail transit in shaping daily travel behaviour at different development stages of the rail transit network. To address this research gap, this research investigates the relationship between transit development and daily travel behavior. The study applies a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to identify the causal effects of the transit accessibility on travel behavior in different development stages of transit expansion. A novel DID method facilitated by the powerful and flexible machine learning algorithms is proposed and utilized for the estimation of the causal relationship between transit accessibility and travel behavior characteristics at different stages of transit development from the initial stage of a single line to the formation of the rail network, and further to the outward expansion towards the suburban areas. Data are collected from Shenzhen, China, a megacity that has experienced rail transit network expansion over the past two decades. Results suggest significant travel behaviour changes induced by changing transit accessibility across different periods and for different population groups. Findings of this study provide valuable insights into how rail transit induces travel behaviour change and have significant policy implications.