A Geographic Perspective on the Differences between Predicted and Observed Effects of the COVID 19 Pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: COVID 19, Sub-Saharan Africa.
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract

Abstract

The effects of the COVID 19 virus pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa are mapped and analyzed with a focus on the difference between the effects widely predicted early in the pandemic and the observed effects over the next three years (through early 2023). The paper will briefly recount the early predictions of a continent-wide calamity and contrast those with the relatively limited observed impact of the virus in most sub-Saharan African countries. Four possible explanations for this observed discrepancy are analyzed and mapped. The possible explanations presented include: 1) The relatively young age of the inhabitants of most sub-Saharan African counties and the established limited morbidity and mortality of COVID 19 in younger persons. 2) The possibility of non-reporting of cases due to limited resources or reporting policies. 3) The possibly more limited spread of the virus due to closure of national land and other borders during early phases of the pandemic. 4) The effective implementation of grass-roots public health measures in many countries.