Translation Speed Influence on Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Generation Along the Gulf of Mexico Coast

Keywords: Storm Surge, Tropical Cyclones, Translation Speed, Gulf of Mexico, HURDAT2, SURGEDAT
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Storm surge is the deadliest component of a landfalling tropical cyclone and causes the most property damage and fatalities (Needham and Keim 2015). This research looks at forward translation speed as a factor in the height of storm surge upon landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Understanding forward translation speed and storm surge height is needed for helping to better prepare and predict future damage from tropical cyclone events. Tropical cyclone data are taken from HURDAT2 over the period 1970 to 2021, and include the location of the center point, as well as the maximum sustained wind speed for six-hour observation points. Hourly interpolated data are included to provide additional precision. Forward translation speed is calculated based on the geographic distance covered between hourly points. Peak storm surge data are taken from SURGEDAT from the same time frame. In this study, the average forward translation speed of landfalling hurricanes is calculated right before landfall at 0 and 1 hour then between hours 5 and 6 (prior to landfall), hours 11 and 12, hours 17 and 18 hours, and hours 23 and 24. Those averages are correlated with maximum peak surge at landfall to find the strongest correlation in space. This study aims to utilize the strongest correlation to build a linear regression predictive model identifying the expected storm surge at landfall based on translation speed and 18-hour maximum sustained wind speed.