Are Certain Cities Tornado Magnets?

Keywords: Climate, Severe Weather, Atmospheric Hazards,
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

More tornadoes occur in the United States than any other country in the world. Although the majority of these tornadoes are relatively weak, violent tornadoes (EF4 or 5), can result in catastrophic damage and loss of life. While these events are rare, certain areas are more prone to experiencing violent tornadoes than others. One such possible tornado magnet, Tanner, Alabama, has experienced three F/EF5 tornadoes since the beginning of the record in 1950. This is an exceptionally high number given the national total is 59. The purpose of this project is to identify if certain cities’ pattern of high-magnitude tornadoes can be replicated through the use of Monte Carlo-style simulations of random points. Four variations of the same test were replicated 1000 times each, where the number of points that fell into the specified buffer zone for each replication was recorded. For Birmingham, Moore, Tanner, or Tuscaloosa there was a <0.1% chance for the model to replicate their actual number of violent tornadoes. These results show that the pattern of violent tornadoes seen in these cities are unlikely to have occurred by random chance. These cities being tornado magnets could be the result of factors like the relationship between tornado frequency and ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, synoptic meteorological conditions, and/or land-surface heterogeneity. Regardless, future research continues to evaluate possible tornado magnets to determine how unique these places are and why violent tornadoes disproportionately affect these locations.