Environmental justice implications of ecosystem service distribution for New York City future scenarios in 2100

Keywords: Environmental justice, ecosystem services, climate change, resilience, hotspot analysis
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Climate-driven hazards, such as extreme heat or precipitation events, are threatening the current and future livability of New York City (NYC) and disproportionately impacting low-income and/or communities of color. To envision future climate resilience, government stakeholders and researchers co-produced positive future scenarios set in 2100 for NYC during participatory workshops in Fall 2021. To analyze the potential outcomes and tradeoffs of scenarios, we integrated spatially-explicit strategies into simulated land use and cover models at 4m resolution. We ask, what are the potential environmental justice implications of ecosystem services from urban green infrastructure distribution in co-produced future scenarios? We assess ecosystem services (flood mitigation, heat mitigation, habitat quality, and nature access) using the spatially-explicit tool, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), and identify hotspots by analyzing ecosystem service overlap. We explore potential environmental justice implications by comparing ecosystem services and hotspots with the spatial distribution of socio-demographic variables within census block groups. Ecosystem services and hotspot distribution varies among the future scenarios, with different implications for future environmental justice. Our results can be used to identify implications of strategic pathways and inform land use and cover change decisions to improve future climate resilience and justice.