Spatial variability of social vulnerability to drought: A case study of Kenyan Counties

Keywords: Drylands, Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, Drought, Northern Kenya, Population
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

In the Horn of Africa, Kenya is a drought-prone country with relatively unpredictable and inadequate rainfall in 80% of its arid and semi-arid landmass. Since the 1960s, droughts in Northern Kenya have notably increased in frequency and intensity, leading to food insecurity and economic losses. Although some research has been carried out to understand the vulnerability of Northern Kenya's population to drought, it is essential to identify the highly vulnerable areas in this region and the drought impacts on them to develop appropriate mitigation and drought risk measures. Socioeconomic data containing poverty indices, food poverty indices, access to improved sanitation, literacy levels and access to health infrastructures of Kenyan counties was used to determine the sensitivity and adaptative capacity parameters. A composite index of vulnerability was then created by combining variables of sensitivity and adaptative capacity. Standardized and weighted input variables generated overall sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and social vulnerability layers using ArcGIS Pro software, revealing spatial patterns using the country's socioeconomic data. Northern Kenya is at risk of varying levels of vulnerability and is the most exposed region to drought in Kenya. A clear understanding of Northern Kenya's vulnerability and adaptive capacity needs could provide constructive solutions that would help mitigate the effects of future drought events and climate change effects.