Carbon storage of Hangzhou ecosystem under the background of "double carbon Research on spatio-temporal evolution and prediction

Keywords: Land use Carbon storage，FLUS InVEST model，Spatial autocorrelation analysis，Multi scenario simulation
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Based on the land use data of Hangzhou from 2000 to 2020, the FLUS model is used to calculate the land use change under three urban development scenarios: natural evolution scenario, farmland protection and development scenario, and ecological protection scenario. Then, the InVEST model is used to predict the change of carbon reserves under three scenarios in 2035. Finally, the spatial autocorrelation model is used to conduct zoning management research, Based on this, the paper puts forward suggestions on the future urban development and low carbon urban construction planning of Hangzhou. The research shows that: (1) 2000-2010 was a period of serious carbon loss, with the carbon stock decreasing by 0.94%. After 2010, the carbon loss was relatively moderate, and the trend of carbon loss became more gradual after 2015. (2) Under the natural evolution scenario, the predicted value of future carbon reserves will continue to decrease. Under the cultivated land protection evolution scenario, the predicted value will slightly decrease, while under the ecological protection evolution scenario, the predicted value of future carbon reserves will turn to increase, 24.1 × 106t, will return to the state of 2015 and continue to improve. (3) The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis show that the carbon reserve values under the three scenarios are similar in spatial distribution. High carbon reserve values are concentrated in the north, northwest and west of the city, while low carbon reserve values are concentrated in the central city.