A study on the mechanism of social risk formation arising from the evolution of urban spatial development in Wuhan, China

Keywords: system dynamic model, exploratory simulation, social risk, urban spatial development, Wuhan
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources and lead to social risks, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. This study utilized an innovation application of system dynamic models and exploratory simulations to analyze the mechanisms of social risk formation arising from the evolution of urban spatial development in Wuhan, China. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on land use and human activities, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. This type of research could influence government interventions to tackle the occurrence of social risks and contribute to polices supporting towards sustainable urban development.