Adaptation Strategies for Species and Ecosystems: The Application the Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index to Grasslands Species in the Southern Great Plains

Keywords: ecoystems, climate change, habitat, vulnerability, HCCVI, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity
Abstract Type: Poster Abstract

Abstract

Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these stressors requires that producers and wildlife managers have access to spatially explicit information to guide adaptative management. In addition to better forecasts of drought severity, an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale is required. The NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) has been successfully applied to regional analysis of ecological systems to gauge the impacts of climate change in space and time. The HCCVI summarizes three key measures: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. Exposure is derived using observed climate baseline (1950 to 1980) and projections for the early to mid-21st century (2015-2045 and 2045-207). Sensitivity may include landscape fragmentation and intactness, invasive plant species, and altered fire regime. The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem is evaluated by analysis of topographic complexity, diversity within functional species groups, and vulnerability of keystone species. HCCVI results provide a description of all components assessed, summary results, and type-specific considerations for adaptive management responses. Products generated from the HCCVI include climate driven transitions among neighboring vegetation types or ecological systems and maps indicating zones of predicted relative climate stability over time. In this poster, we present an overview of the HCCVI and preliminary results of its application to of major grasslands systems in the Southern Great Plains of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.