Assessing the Effect of Energy Bill Increases on Mental Well-Being Outcomes for the United Kingdom Using a Dynamic Microsimulation `MINOS’
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Keywords: dynamic microsimulation, mental well-being, energy crisis, United Kingdom, Understanding Society
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract
Authors:
Robert Clay,
Nikolas Lomax,
Alison Heppenstall,
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Abstract
United Kingdom average household energy expenditure is expected to triple by January 2023, exceeding £3500 per year. This would put 11 million homes into fuel poverty with devastating effects on national well-being. The UK government has implemented several alleviating policies including an energy price cap per kilowatt-hour that would limit average household bills to £2500 per year, and rebates for vulnerable groups such as the elderly.
There is widespread concern that these measures are implemented without evidence and are likely insufficient to alleviate financial hardship. Our approach aims to provide evidence for these policies using a dynamic microsimulation framework ‘MINOS’. We generate a synthetic population of individuals for the UK using the Understanding Society Household Panel Survey. This population is then evolved forwards in time exploring the relationship between energy policy, its impact on household disposable income, and the resulting change in mental wellbeing measured using the Short Form 12 Mental Component Score (SF12).
Policies for the baseline (uncapped) and price-capped energy costs are implemented to assess if current policies are sufficient to improve mental well-being. Projected populations are analysed at national level determining overall change and uncertainty in SF12 score. Inference is also performed at individual-level exploring heterogeneity over spatial distributions and vulnerable strata to identify those most affected by energy prices. Further strategies are proposed, designed to suggest pragmatic improvements to current policy and idealistic best overall strategy maximising the trade-off between financial cost and mental well-being.
Assessing the Effect of Energy Bill Increases on Mental Well-Being Outcomes for the United Kingdom Using a Dynamic Microsimulation `MINOS’
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Paper Abstract