Microdemographics and microsimulation
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Keywords: urban analytics, microsimulation, geodemographics
Abstract Type: Paper Abstract
Authors:
Paul A Longley, University College London
Jakub Wyszomierski, University College London
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Abstract
This paper describes the use of Linked Consumer Registers of the names and addresses of the majority of the UK adult population to simulate key individual characteristics such as age, gender, ethnicity and household structure. Associated individual residence characteristics such as housing tenure, sales prices, rental history, property size, construction type and energy efficiency are appended to these registers. Precise georeferencing of individual observations makes possible reliable estimation of the characteristics of missing households and the attributes of missing properties. Whilst conventional microsimulation typically requires use of mixing distributions to simulate multiple aspects of entire local populations, a microdemographic approach enables use of observed and modelled data at the individual level in ‘what is?’ analysis. Moreover, ‘what if’ analysis can be reliably informed by observed patterns and transitions at local level, observed and modelled at local scale over a 25-year period rather than relying upon inferences from more generalised and less granular secondary data sources. We illustrate the merits of this approach in extending the 2021 England and Wales Output Area Classification (OAC) to years for which census data will not be available.
Microdemographics and microsimulation
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Paper Abstract