Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Geodiversity Assessment Models

Keywords: Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, Geodiversity, Spatial Multiple Criteria Models
Abstract Type: Virtual Paper Abstract

Abstract

Geodiversity denotes variability in abiotic components in a hierarchical ecological system that
includes geology, Earth surface relief, soil cover, surface and ground water, and climate. In the absence of a widely accepted direct measurement method, various geodiversity assessment approaches have been proposed including Spatial Multiple Criteria Analysis (S-MCA) combining expert judgement with data analytics. This approach yields for each mapping unit a synthetic geodiversity assessment value. The robustness of assessment, however, needs to be examined in light of uncertainties due to expert judgement and data error. In this paper, we present the results of examining the robustness of S-MCA based geodiversity assessment carried out for three national parks in Poland. The analysis relies on an integrated approach of input uncertainty and model sensitivity applicable to maps and spatial data. Typically, this approach focuses on the uncertainty of expert judgement represented by criterion weights. The research presented in the paper extends the approach by analyzing the uncertainty and model sensitivity due to both weights and criterion values.